The elections in America and Israel have handed Tehran a reason to wait. Democrats' capture of Congress will give US President Donald Trump a divided government amid public opposition to the Iran war. Israel's inconclusive election points toward prolonged paralysis or a fragile coalition. The political window is narrowing. The Iranian threat remains.Israel needs to use that window to help Iran's opposition establish a protected foothold inside the country – where it can organize, govern, and offer a credible alternative to the regime. Jerusalem needs a strategy for turning military and economic pressure into political change.The cost of failing could be an emboldened regime. Tehran's leaders may interpret survival as proof that they can outlast their adversaries, rebuild their proxies, and renew aggression against Israel and the Gulf states. They could also decide to dash for nuclear weapons, calculating that a nuclear arsenal would deter future intervention and give them greater freedom to intimidate the region.Robust sanctions and a comprehensive blockade can deny Tehran revenue and complicate military rebuilding. But the Revolutionary Guards have learned to preserve their power amid national impoverishment.Nor can a blockade be sustained indefinitely: it requires American military resources and political consent while imposing unpopular economic costs. Pressure buys time; it does not create a successor.That requires an opposition capable of surviving repression.
Israel needs to turn military pressure on Iran into political change - opinion
Sanctions and a blockade buy time. Israel should use it to help an Iranian-led opposition establish a protected foothold inside the country.
In brief
The elections in America and Israel have handed Tehran a reason to wait. Israel's inconclusive election points toward prolonged paralysis or a fragile coalition. Jerusalem needs a strategy for turning military and economic pressure into political change.The cost of failing could be an emboldened regime. But the Revolutionary Guards have learned to preserve their power amid national impoverishment.Nor can a blockade be sustained indefinitely: it requires American military resources and political consent while imposing unpopular economic costs.
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