Washington is at risk of mistaking Mohsen Rezaei’s new prominence for a willingness to make concessions, Iran analyst Alex Vatanka argues. The former Revolutionary Guards commander, now secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance and is reportedly seen by American intelligence as the figure best placed to deliver a deal across Tehran’s factious institutions. But Rezaei’s comeback owes little to public legitimacy — he lost four presidential bids and his economic ideas were widely mocked — and much to a leadership vacuum left by the war and a network of IRGC loyalists built over decades, Vatanka writes for the Saudi-owned magazine Al Majalla.
Rezaei has already shown the limits of his flexibility. He welcomed the letter’s tone, then insisted Washington accept Iran’s conditions first. Yesterday he went further, telling Al Mayadeen that not “a single speck” of enriched uranium would leave the country because Iran needs it to build nuclear-powered submarines — a rejection of the core US demand. His appointment was itself a product of hardline frustration: Rezaei was elevated by people close to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei who were unhappy with parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s handling of the talks, a Crisis Group analyst told Radio Free Europe.
— Ed Clowes
