US President Donald Trump has for now shelved negotiations for a nuclear agreement with Iran in favor of an economic strangulation strategy and naval embargo that is accelerating the country’s decline.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday “there’s no need for military action because we’ve weakened them so much,” adding that “victory is ensuring that they never have a nuclear weapon.”
In Trump’s calculation, time is on the US side, and he has a point. Iran has never been weaker. Its nuclear facilities, missile and drone bases, and military and naval forces have been bombed repeatedly. Its economy is in freefall, worsened by new sanctions on Iranian commercial banks. Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are at pre-war levels, while Iran’s oil exports are shut down because of the US embargo and naval blockade. Iran’s top leaders know they could be targets in any further US or Israeli attacks.
Iran is resilient, but it is not winning, and it is not stronger than it was before the war. As an adversary, it is resourceful and relentless: it has mastered playing the weak hand, through proxy and drone warfare, calibrating its escalation with the US, and exploiting the vulnerabilities of neighbors who depend on the United States for protection.