It can be easy to get tangled up in the complexities of Nations League permutations and, although Wales still have a few uncertainties to iron out, the picture is becoming clearer for Craig Bellamy's side.
Following their 3-1 defeat in Norway on Saturday, Wales will finish bottom of Group A4 even if they win their final game against reigning champions Portugal on Tuesday.
But that does not mean they will definitely be relegated from the top tier.
Instead, they are almost certain to play one of the teams from League B in a relegation play-off in March.
However, one thing is for sure: As a result of the Norway loss, Wales will not be among the top seeds for Euro 2028 qualifying.
"We wanted to be in pot one. That was the drive," said head coach Bellamy after the defeat in Oslo.
"Some people might say, 'what makes you think you should be in pot one?' But I do.
"Maybe I'm naïve. I see in big parts of that game we can be in pot one. Let's take the good bits from the game, definitely improve on certain moments of the game and just keep pushing."
A point against Portugal would make sure of it, but even if they lose, Wales will most likely end up in a relegation play-off.
