Amena’s view
The drums of war are beating again, and the oil-exporting states are bracing “for the worst,” as the UAE’s presidential advisor Anwar Gargash recently put it. Eight months into the US-Iran war, one lesson is clear: There is no amount of operational resilience that can shield energy infrastructure from an unresolved political conflict. Renewed strikes will put more of the region’s oil supply at risk.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have demonstrated exceptional levels of resilience, activating contingency plans, carrying out repair works in record time, and keeping customers supplied. Their bypass pipelines have proven the value of planning for the shift from the “just in time” model to the “just in case” approach.
The UAE’s 1.8 million-barrel-per-day (bpd) pipeline from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman was once questioned as an investment. Its cost was recovered after just one month of conflict, according to people familiar with the matter. A second link with similar capacity is expected to be completed by July 2027. Saudi Arabia is considering expanding its larger East-West Pipeline and may bring in countries like Iraq and Kuwait that don’t have shipping outlets outside the Gulf.
Within the industry, there’s a growing consensus that the pre-war oil flows will not return.