Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall by 0.4% in 2026, driven by the rapid expansion of solar and wind power and the energy supply shock caused by the Iran war, according to research by the Global Carbon Project. But the decline is not yet fast enough to be durable, an accompanying study published in the journal Nature found. Emissions from oil are expected to decrease by 1.9%, which is likely a short-term response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. “A reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, an Exeter University professor who led the GCP study and was a co-author of the Nature paper.
Total carbon emissions are set to rise around 1% this year, as emissions from deforestation and land-use change are projected to increase for the first time in a decade. At the current rate, the world will deplete its remaining carbon budget aimed at keeping global temperature rises to 1.5℃ in fewer than four years.
— Chloé Farand
